NBA Prop Shadow Evidence
Stage 5C · RESEARCH / NOT PUBLIC PICKS
Points v1
nba-points-dist-v1-ridge-gaussian
SHADOW ACTIVE
Settled0
Next checkpoint250
CRPS—
Cal Brier—
Cal LogLoss—
Obs result0
Same-book close0/0
Protocolv1
Checkpoint progress0/250
3PM v1
nba-threes-dist-v1-elasticnet-poisson
SHADOW ACTIVE
Settled0
Next checkpoint250
CRPS—
Cal Brier—
Cal LogLoss—
Obs result0
Same-book close0/0
Protocolv1
Checkpoint progress0/250
Rebounds v2
nba-rebounds-dist-v2rework-gaussian
SHADOW ACTIVE
Settled0
Next checkpoint250
CRPS—
Cal Brier—
Cal LogLoss—
Obs result0
Same-book close0/0
Protocolv1
Checkpoint progress0/250
Assists
NOT READY FOR SHADOWDistribution CRPS did not beat baseline (1.001 vs 0.941). Calibration improved but forecast accuracy did not. Excluded from Stage 5C evidence.
Operational health
Last settle—
Pending settlement0
Checkpoints0
Protocolv1
Market coverage funnel
Offers seen—
Identity resolved0
Prediction frozen0
Closing quote found0
Settled0
Evidence ledger
| Player | Stat | Book | Line | Price | Exp | Raw | Cal | Mkt | Gap | Close | Move | Actual | Result | Role | DQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No settled observations yet. Evidence accumulates as the season progresses. | |||||||||||||||
SHADOW/RESEARCH only. Nothing here updates the public track record, qualifies a model, or creates picks. Checkpoints are diagnostic — human review required.