Guide
Understanding the Scores
Learn what each score means and how NoHunch evaluates an opportunity.
NoHunch provides analysis, not guarantees. All outcomes remain uncertain — even the highest-rated opportunities can lose.
How NoHunch Works
Every NoHunch pick starts with the sportsbook market. We strip out the book’s built-in fee to recover the true, vig-free probability, then compare it to what our model believes is the real chance of the outcome. The gap between the two is the edge — the only reason to make a pick. Below, we walk through every number you’ll see on a card, in the order that matters.
Probability
Model Probability
Market Probability
A high win probability does not automatically make a good pick. If the model says 70% but the market already prices it at 74%, NoHunch sees no value — you’d be paying for a chance the book has already charged you for. Edge, not probability, is what matters.
Edge
Model Edge
Edge is the whole point. NoHunch only recommends sides where the model’s probability is meaningfully higher than the market’s. No edge, no pick.
Expected Value (EV)
Expected Value
Data Quality
Data Quality Score
Qualification Statuses
Not enough measurable value. NoHunch declines to recommend it.
Close, but waiting for better odds or more information before qualifying.
Passed our value and data-quality checks.
Higher measured edge with strong supporting data.
The apparent edge is unusually large, so NoHunch double-checks it before recommending.
STRONG describes the quality of the opportunity relative to the market. It does not mean the outcome is guaranteed. Some high-edge opportunities can still be lower-probability events — especially things like home-run props. A strong edge is a strong price, not a sure thing.
Watchlist
A WATCHLIST pick is close to qualifying but isn’t there yet — the edge is real but small, or the data isn’t complete enough to commit. Track it and revisit if the odds move in your favor or more information arrives.
Did we beat the market?
Closing Line Value (CLV) compares the price NoHunch identified to the market price near game time. Consistently beating the closing market can be a useful sign that the model is finding value before the rest of the market adjusts.
Positive CLV = the line moved in your favor after the pick was made. Over many picks, beating the close is what the math rewards — more than any single win or loss.
Market Anomalies
A market anomaly is an unusual pattern in how the public and the sharp money are behaving — reverse line movement, ticket-vs-money splits, or sudden unexplained line moves. NoHunch surfaces these as signals to investigate, not automatic picks. They often point to where the market may be mispriced.
How official records are tracked
Every QUALIFIED and STRONG pick is graded against the actual result and the sharp closing line, then logged permanently — wins and losses alike. Nothing is hidden or retroactively removed. The Track Record page shows the full, unfiltered history so you can judge the model on its real performance.
A real example, annotated
Brewers ML +118
STRONGModel Probability
57%
NoHunch thinks Milwaukee wins about 57% of the time.
Market Probability
50%
The sportsbook price (+118) implies about 50% after removing vig.
Edge
+7%
The difference between model and market — the value the model found.
Data Quality
96%
How complete the underlying research data was.
Status
STRONG
Passed our value AND data-quality checks at a higher edge.
In one line: NoHunch thinks Milwaukee wins about 57% of the time, while the sportsbook price implies about 50%. That difference is the edge.